Is it possible to detect earthquakes in advance?

Two strong earthquakes that occurred one after the other in Kahramanmaras caused great destruction in 10 different cities. Some of our cities have been reduced to huge piles of rubble, thousands of buildings have been destroyed, countless buildings have been severely damaged. Unfortunately, more than 30 thousand of our people died in the destruction caused by the earthquake, many were injured. Negligence and lack of control became the main reasons for the destruction of thousands of buildings and the death of people. However, recently the answer to the question “Is it possible to detect earthquakes in advance” is also being asked? Let’s look at the details together.

Earthquake in Kahramanmaras shook the whole of Turkey

Of course, negligence, lack of control and many other human errors have become the main factor in the death of thousands of our people during the earthquake. However, recently the question comes to mind, why earthquakes cannot be predicted and why people are not warned in advance?

Is it possible to detect earthquakes in advance?

The short answer is, unfortunately, no. Unfortunately, modern technology does not allow us to determine the exact date of earthquakes. However, scientists have been seriously working on this issue for a long time. However, there are many factors and complex processes that underlie the unpredictability of earthquakes. Scientists have been creating earthquakes in the laboratory for a long time, and in this way they are doing valuable research in various fields.

The movement of earthquakes created in the laboratory can be predicted

Chris Marone, Professor of Geosciences at the Sapienza University of Rome in Italy and Pennsylvania State University in the US, said:When we simulate earthquakes in the laboratory, we see that small faults appear: first, some cracks and cracks appear. But there is a lot of uncertainty in nature as to why we often do not see the harbingers of a major earthquake.” uses expressions.

Geologists have been working on earthquake prediction since the 1960s.

However, it is impossible to predict earthquakes even today. The most important reason for this, Marone says, is the complexity of the fault lines that cross the globe. On the other hand, underground seismic noise complicates the signals that can be used to predict earthquakes, preventing a sufficiently accurate analysis.

According to the USGS, there are three different aspects that are important in predicting when an earthquake will occur.

“Where will the earthquake occur, when will it occur and how strong will it be.” But for now, no one can know for sure. On the other hand, although scientists do not know what day and time earthquakes will occur, it is possible to specify a time interval about the date of an earthquake. For example, at the end of some studies, it can be stated that an earthquake is expected in the corresponding region within a few years. However, this time interval is not enough to significantly reduce the damage from the earthquake.

Today, very interesting research is being carried out with the aim of early detection of earthquakes.

Scientists don’t just analyze seismic data to predict earthquakes. For example, although this is a controversial issue in the scientific world, there are studies that track the behavior of different animals. Some scientists suggest that before earthquakes there are noticeable changes in the behavior of animals, especially near the epicenters of earthquakes.

Chinese scientists try to predict earthquakes by changing the ionospheric layer

The ionosphere is a part of the atmosphere at an altitude of 70 to 400 km, where there are enough ions and free electrons to reflect electromagnetic waves. Chinese scientists are trying to predict earthquakes by studying the vibrations of electrically charged particles. A team of scientists in Israel suggests that by studying changes in the electron content in the ionosphere over the past 20 years, it will be possible to predict major earthquakes with an accuracy of 83% in 48 hours.

Changes in water vapor in earthquake zones can also be a sign of impending earthquakes.

Japanese scientists are studying changes in water vapor in some earthquake zones. Estimates made by studying these changes are said to be 70 percent accurate. However, it is not possible to accurately predict the date of an earthquake using this method. Thanks to this method, it is predicted that an earthquake can occur anywhere in the earthquake zone in the next few months.

On the other hand, there are studies on earthquake prediction using artificial intelligence. Some scientists say that artificial intelligence could be much more efficient in the coming period to be able to accurately predict what day earthquakes will hit.

Source: 1